Five signals from the Climate Investor Forum that we can’t afford to ignore

I spent last week at the Climate Investor Forum and came away with five insights that I think deserve a broader conversation, particularly for those of us operating across climate, venture, and the regional investment landscape.

None of these takeaways are comfortable. A few are confronting. But they felt consistent across recent conversations I've been having with investors, founders, operators, and policy people.

If you care about building real-world climate outcomes in Australia, it’s worth considering this new reality.

1. Climate investing has fallen off the radar, fast

In 2022, climate was the number one thematic for investors globally. Today, it sits at number 19.

That is not a gentle decline. It is a sharp reprioritisation.

You can interpret that shift in a few ways. You might see it as a correction after a frothy cycle. You might see it as fatigue, where urgency has been replaced by short-term caution. You might see it as the market narrowing its definition of what counts as “climate” and what is investable right now.

Whatever the explanation, the signal matters. If you are building in climate, you are operating in a market where attention is harder to win, not easier. That changes how you tell your story, how you prove traction, and how you frame risk.

It also raises a bigger question for all of us. If climate can slide this far down the list this quickly, what does that say about our collective ability to sustain focus on long-horizon problems?

2. Australian start-ups often have three of the four pillars needed for success. It's the fourth that continues to be the bottleneck

Solving the climate problem requires:

1. Public awareness
2. Capital
3. Market-leading technology
4. Aligned government regulation

In Australia, we often have three of these four. The missing piece, again and again, is regulatory alignment.

Founders can build world-class technology. Investors can show up with capital. Public awareness can be built through brand, community and proof of impact.

But regulation is the lever that shapes markets at scale. It determines whether demand is real, durable, and enforced. It decides whether good actors are rewarded or punished. It creates the conditions for supply chains to shift, and for incumbents to follow.

When that alignment is missing, we end up with a familiar pattern. Great innovation struggles to reach escape velocity. Progress becomes a sequence of pilots instead of a system-wide transition. The pace is constrained not by capability, but by the rules of the game.

If we want Australia to be more than a great place to invent, we have to become a great place to scale. That requires policy settings that match the ambition we say we have.

3. AI is absorbing the oxygen in Australian venture

One stat kept coming up in different forms: around 60% of Australian VC funding is now flowing to AI.

This is not a moral judgement on AI. It is simply what’s happening in the market. Capital follows momentum, and AI has become the gravitational centre of venture right now.

The implication is straightforward. Capital for other sectors, including climate tech, is being squeezed. The competition for attention, conviction and cheque size has intensified. If you are raising outside of AI, the fundraising dynamics have changed.

That means founders need to plan accordingly. Not just with their pitch, but with their runway, their milestones, and their capital strategy. It also means investors and operators need to be honest about the second-order effects. If the majority of funding is concentrated in one category, the rest of the innovation economy doesn’t just slow down. It becomes more fragile.

There is also a nuance worth holding. AI and climate are not competing futures. AI will be an enabling layer across climate, materials, energy, and supply chains. But enabling does not automatically translate into investment. If you are building climate outcomes with AI as part of the toolkit, you still need to prove why your moat is defensible and why the outcome is commercially inevitable.

4. American capital is retreating from Asia Pacific

Another consistent thread was that both institutional and retail US investors have pulled back from our region.

That has real implications for deal flow, valuations, and co-investment opportunities. It changes how rounds get built. It changes the types of investors who lead. It changes the expectations founders face, and the networks they need to access.

For Australia, it also brings a challenge into sharper focus. If global capital is less willing to take the first risk in the region, then local capital, and local institutions, matter more. So does local policy. So does the strength of local demand.

In other words, we cannot assume that external capital will keep arriving on the same terms as before. We have to build a market that stands on its own two feet.

5. Adapt now, or face irrelevance within 18–24 months

This was the sharpest message of the week.

Companies that aren’t positioning for the new economy will struggle, and soon. Not in some abstract way. In an operational way. In their ability to hire, sell, finance, and partner up.

There was also a compelling discussion on whether clean technology can truly be “made in Australia”. The belief in our national potential was genuine, but the consensus was sobering.

Labour costs, ambition gaps, and the scale of overseas government subsidies make global competitiveness a real challenge. If other countries are underwriting industrial transformation and we are not, then wishing will not close the gap.

For founders, this is both a warning and a call to action. You need to be clearer about your strategic positioning, your supply chain assumptions, and your path to scale.

For investors, it is a reminder that the time horizon has shortened. The market is not waiting patiently. It is moving, and it is selecting.
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These aren’t comfortable takeaways. But I left the forum certain that the organisations and investors who engage with them honestly will be the ones best positioned for what’s ahead.

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